KFF: Health Spending Growth Projected to Slow

KFF’s Matthew McGough, Aubrey Winger, Nisha Kurani, and Cynthia Cox reported on October 7 that the per capita health spending growth is projected to slow slightly in 2025. “In 2024, per capita health spending growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.5%,” the authors concluded. Growth is expected to slow further over the coming years.

Healthcare Innovation’s David Raths wrote in June, based on a study from the Office of the Actuary (OACT), that health spending over the course of 2023–32 is expected to grow 5.6 percent per year on average, leading to a projected $7.7 trillion in overall spending by 2032.

Furthermore, the KFF’s authors noted, “CMS actuaries expect per capita out-of-pocket spending growth to average 3.5 percent from 2025 to 2032.” They also emphasized that the growth in per-enrollee Medicare spending is expected to slow starting in 2025.

Actuaries from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) project future health spending yearly.